HomeSubjectCreatorAdmin LoginAbout Logo
Decision Board

The Poliheuristic Project

The study of decision making cuts across all Social Science disciplines with scholars such as Etzioni and Coleman in Sociology, Friedman and Thaler in Economics, Tversky and Kahneman in psychology, Simon in AI and Computer Science, and Allison, Steinbrunner and Grofman in Political Science devote their careers to understand how people/consumers/leaders/policy makers make decisions.

Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman argued that theories should be judged based on the validity of their predictions. Nobel Laureate, the late Herbert Simon countered by introducing the "satisficing" principle which according to Simon describes how people make decisions.

Researchers led by Professor Alex Mintz, developed the Poliheuristic theory of decision (PH) as a "bridge" between the "cognitive" and "rational" in decision making (see Mintz Journal Of Conflict Resolution 1993; Journal of Theoretical Politics 1995; et al American Political Science Review 1997). Analysis of top-ranking U.S. Air Force generals at the Air Force Academy (Mintz et al 1997) provided strong support for the theory.

Past work across the social sciences has demonstrated the merits of computerized process tracers for modeling and testing theories of decision making (see Taber and Timpone 1996). A bibliography of Work on the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision is provided below.


Bibliography of Work on the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making
  • Alex Mintz. "The Decision to Attack Iraq: A Noncompensatory Theory of Decision Making", Journal of Conflict Resolution, December 1993.
  • Alex Mintz, Nehemia Geva and Karl DeRouen. "Mathematical Models of Foreign Policy Decision Making: Compensatory vs. Noncompensatory" Synthese, 1994.
  • Alex Mintz, "The Noncompensatory Principle of Coalition Formation", Journal of Theoretical Politics 7(3), 1995.
  • Alex Mintz and Nehemia Geva. "The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making", In:  Decision Making on  War and Peace: The Cognitive Debate. Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz (eds). Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
  • Alex Mintz, Nehemia Geva, Steven Redd and Amy Carnes.  "The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choices on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Using the Decision Board Platform". American Political Science Review. September 1997.
  • Nehemia Geva, Steven B. Redd and Alex Mintz. "Evolving Vs. Static Decision Dimensions and Decision Processes: An Experimental Assessment of Poliheuristic Propositions". Discussion Paper, Program in Foreign Policy Decision Making, TAMU, 1998
  • Stephen Walker. "Models of Foreign Policy Decisions: Rivals or Partners?" Mershon International Studies Review 1998, 42 (2): 343-345
  • Allison Astorino-Courtois and Brittani Trusty. "Degrees of Difficulty: The effect of Israeli Policy Shifts on Syrian Peace Decisions," Journal of Conflict Resolution 44 (3), 2000.
  • Alex Mintz. "Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Poliheuristic Perspective," In:  Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Vesna Danilovic. "The Rational-Cognitive Debate and Poliheuristic Theory," In:  Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Xinsheng Liu. "Comparing the Poliheuristic Theory with the Cybernetic Decision Theory," In:  Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Kani Sathasivam. "No Other Choice: Pakistan's Decision to Test the Bomb," In: Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Michelle Taylor-Robinson and Steven B. Redd. "Framing and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision: The United Fruit Project and the 1954 U.S.-Led Coup in Guatemala," In:  Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Karl DeRouen, Jr. "The Decision Not to Use Force in Dien Bien Phu: A Poliheuristic Perspective," In: Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Steven Redd. "Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Experimental Evidence," In: Alex Mintz (ed) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. New York: St. Martin's/Palgrave (2002).
  • Alex Mintz. "The Poliheuristic Theory of War and Peace Decision Making," presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1999, Atlanta.
  • Karl DeRouen. "The President and the Diversionary Use of Force" ISQ 2000
  • Karl DeRouen. "Foreign Policy Decision Making: Dien Bien Phu 1954 and Grenada 1983." FPDM Discussion Paper Series, 1994
  • Alex Mintz "Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making: Directions for Future Research". FPDM Discussion Paper Series, 2001.
  • Alex Mintz and Allison Astorino-Courtois. "Simulating Decision Processes: Expanding the Poliheuristic Theory to Model N-Person Strategic Interactions in International Relations". Paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, February, 2001.